The analyst of rosin market in May(Ⅱ)

05/20/2004
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The new rosin producing season was postponed due to bad weather condition, at preset, just a little amount of new rosin available in the market, quoted price is about 4000RMB/ton, the cost of rosin increase in recent, the feature of the market as follow.

First, the market keep stable in May although new rosin enter into the market, but the producing season was postponed and supply of new rosin is shortage in May, therefore, the quotation is relative high. At present the demand of rosin was increased in domestic and oversea market, the supply of ww grade rosin is limited in the market, also the transaction is small, lot of buyers wait for low price of rosin after new rosin enter into market in large amount. In a word, it is estimated that rosin price will keep stable until the end of May.

Second, rosin market benefit from limited low price long-dated orders. Some rosin manufactures and dealers broke theirs long-dated contracts in last year when rosin price rose suddenly, thus make a heavy loss in theirs credit. In order to avert such risk, lot of rosin manufactures take a waiting and seeing attitude to the market, long dated orders was undesired, even if long-dated orders was made, the term of price is very ambiguous. Meanwhile, quotation from rosin export company was run up to avert such risk, at present, the export price of rosin was quoted at about FOB 485USD/ton Huangpu port.

Third, the economic of China d the price raw material of rosin, such as coal, oxalic acid and iron drum increased in the past four month, further more, the price of farm produce and forest product also increase in recent time, there for, the collection price of oleo pine resin was expected to increase after May, it will make the cost of rosin rise obviously. According to the current situation, rosin price is difficult to decline below 3700RMB/ton even in the middle season.

In a word, gum rosin market keeps stable in May according to the current market situation mentioned above. With the increase of new gum rosin, the market will change gradually; a new round of challenge will arrive in June.

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